PV¤
Global Photovoltaic Sector Overview¤
Over the preceding two decades, the global photovoltaic (PV) sector has witnessed a profound escalation in capacity. Commencing from a modest 1,790 MW in 2001, it expanded to an impressive 584,000 MW by the end of 2019.1 This progression corresponds to an average annual growth rate of approximately 40%. As of the onset of 2020, solar PVs contributed to 5.75% of the worldwide renewable electricity, representing a substantial 23% of the aggregate installed renewable energy capacity. Notably, grid-connected PV systems dominate the market, accounting for over 99% of the share, leaving off-grid systems, once a majority, now representing a marginal 0.7%.
Performance Metrics and Cost Implications¤
The efficiency of PV modules, as of recent 2020 data, reached approximately 17%. However, advanCement Prod.s in multi-junction cell technology have reported efficiencies exceeding 45%, although their widespread implementation remains consElectric Trained due to elevated production costs. From an economic perspective, initial capital outlay remains the predominant deterrent to the sector’s growth. Despite this, a downward trajectory in costs has been observed over recent years. In a comparative analysis with alternative energy sources in Quebec, solar remains less competitive than wind and hydroelectric modalities. Nevertheless, projections indicate potential parity with HydroQuébec’s residential rates within the forthcoming decade. Regarding solar irradiance, Quebec registers an annual mean value ranging from 1,000 kWh/m2 to 1,350 kWh/m2.
Comparative Analysis: Solar Capacity by Nation¤
In the context of 2018, China emerged as the foremost player in global solar installations, commanding a capacity of 131 GW. Subsequent nations in terms of capacity include the USA (51 GW), Japan (49 GW), and Germany (42 GW). Within Canada, a cumulative output of 2.9 GW has been documented, primarily attributed to initiatives in Ontario.2
Evolution of PV production in Canada
The Electricity generation from solar technologies, goes from 572 GWh produced in 2011 to to 4846 GWh in 2020.
Source: https://www.irena.org/Energy-Transition/Technology/Solar-energy ⧉
Analyzing the Solar PV Potential¤
Exploiting solar energy has inherent variabilities, largely attributed to diurnal cycles, meteorological conditions, and seasonal changes. Within the context of Quebec, the intermittent nature of solar insolation presents unique challenges for grid-integrated PV systems. Studies indicate that the annual use factor of such systems in southern Quebec approximates 16-17%. Intriguingly, this surpasses the figures reported from established solar energy producers, including Germany and Japan. Quebec’s northern latitude means it receives less solar radiation compared to countries closer to the equator. However, the province’s vast area offers significant potential for large-scale solar farms.
Residential Potential4¤
For Quebec, with a mean daily insolation of 4.33 kWh/m2 for latitude tilt:
- Ground Floor Area: 172 km2
- Yearly Electricity Production: 11 TWh
- Yearly Electricity Use: 37.8 TWh
- Electricity Production/Use: 29%
- GHG emissions intensity: 0.0088 kg/kWh
- Yearly GHG emissions reductions: 0.095 Megatonnes
Commercial and Institutional Potential4¤
For Quebec, with a mean daily insolation of 4.33 kWh/m2 for latitude tilt:
- Ground Floor Area: 44.6 km2
- Yearly Electricity Production: 3.8 TWh
- Yearly Electricity Use: 35 TWh
- Electricity Production/Use: 11%
- GHG emissions intensity: 0.0088 kg/kWh
- Yearly GHG emissionsreductions: 0.033 Megatonnes
These figures indicate that building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) have a significant potential in Quebec, both in the residential and commercial sectors, contributing to a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
In particular, areas in southern Quebec receive sufficient sunlight to make PV installations economically viable, especially during the summer months. According to HydroQuébec3 the south of the province receives around 1200 [kWh/kW] in one year. The potential of urban rooftops in cities like Montreal can also contribute significantly to the province’s solar production.
Monthly production¤
Quebec’s solar energy production varies seasonally, with longer daylight hours in the summer contributing to higher outputs. The winter months, with shorter days and potential snow cover, can reduce the efficiency of PV installations.
Parameters¤
This section presents all the parameters used for the PV in the ES model, including the raw data sources and necessary hypothesis, as well as key calculation. It should be noticed that some parameters used in the model are not deterministic, implying the necessity of taking into consideration the uncertainty. The corresponding uncertainty range for each parameter stems either from a broad literature review, or denoted by expert assumptions (see the following parameters).
| entry_key | value | unit | sets | source_reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELECTRICITY_LV (layer) | 1 | - | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| RES_SOLAR (layer) | -1 | - | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| c_inv | 1000 | MCHF/GW | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| c_inv | 1085 | USD/kW | CAN | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| c_inv | 1085 | USD/kW | USA | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| c_inv | 1300 | USD/kW | CAN | Lorenczik, Stefan; Keppler, Jan Horst, (2020): "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020 – Analysis" |
| c_inv | 1800 | CAD/kW | CAN | Hayne, Heather; Banister, Carsen; Martinussen, Nika, (2022): "Renewables for Decarbonization and Resiliency of Remote and Arctic Communities in Canada: Policy and Economics Review" |
| c_inv | 3000 | CAD/kW | CAN | Hayne, Heather; Banister, Carsen; Martinussen, Nika, (2022): "Renewables for Decarbonization and Resiliency of Remote and Arctic Communities in Canada: Policy and Economics Review" |
| c_maint | 12 | USD/kW/yr | USA | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| c_maint | 15.88 | MCHF/GW/yr | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| c_p | 0.125 | - | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| c_p | 0.172 | - | ROW | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| c_p_t[10] | 0.103 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[11] | 0.076 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[12] | 0.08 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[1] | 0.101 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[2] | 0.141 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[3] | 0.168 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[4] | 0.16 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[5] | 0.157 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[6] | 0.155 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[7] | 0.157 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[8] | 0.151 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| c_p_t[9] | 0.13 | - | QC | , (2020): "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| gwp_constr | 270 | ktCO2_eq/GW | ROW | International Energy Agency, (2022): "Special Report on Solar PV Global Supply Chains" |
| gwp_constr | 2081.43 | kgCO2/kW | Ecoinvent, (2013): "Ecoinvent Database V3 ⧉" | |
| lifetime | 25 | yr | ROW | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| lifetime | 25 | yr | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| lifetime | 30 | yr | ROW | Weckend, Stephanie; Wade, Andreas; Heath, Garvin, (2016): "End of Life Management: Solar Photovoltaic Panels" |
| out_max | 14800 | GWh | CAN | Pelland, Sophie; Poissant, Yves, (2006): "An Evaluation of the Potential of Building Integrated Photovoltaics in Canada" |
| ref_size | 3e-06 | GW | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| ref_size | 3 | kW | CAN | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| ref_size | 20 | MW | CAN | Lorenczik, Stefan; Keppler, Jan Horst, (2020): "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020 – Analysis" |
| trl | 9 | - | CAN | IRENA, (2022): "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| trl | 9 | - | CHE | Moret, Stefano, (2017): "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
References¤
| Data Sources |
|---|
| Ecoinvent. (2013). "Ecoinvent Database V3 ⧉" |
| . (2020). "Photovoltaic Potential and Solar Resource Maps of Canada - Open Government Portal" |
| Hayne, Heather; Banister, Carsen; Martinussen, Nika. (2022). "Renewables for Decarbonization and Resiliency of Remote and Arctic Communities in Canada: Policy and Economics Review" |
| International Energy Agency. (2022). "Special Report on Solar PV Global Supply Chains". https://doi.org/10.1787/9e8b0121-en ⧉ |
| IRENA. (2022). "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021" |
| Lorenczik, Stefan; Keppler, Jan Horst. (2020). "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020 – Analysis" |
| Moret, Stefano. (2017). "Strategic Energy Planning under Uncertainty" |
| Pelland, Sophie; Poissant, Yves. (2006). "An Evaluation of the Potential of Building Integrated Photovoltaics in Canada" |
| Weckend, Stephanie; Wade, Andreas; Heath, Garvin. (2016). "End of Life Management: Solar Photovoltaic Panels". https://doi.org/10.2172/1561525 ⧉ |
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International Energy Agency (IEA). 2019. Renewables 2019: Analysis and forecast 2024 ⧉. ↩
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L’énergie solaire photovoltaïque : est-ce rentable au Québec ? (2024, July 03). Retrieved from https://www.hydroquebec.com/solaire ⧉ ↩
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Pelland & Poissant. 2006. An Evaluation of the Potential of Building Integrated Photovoltaics in Canada ⧉: ↩↩